According to a new report by a consumer credit reporting agency, Canadians will likely see a slight increase in debt and delinquencies next year, particularly in Western provinces hit by downturns in the oil and farming industries.

The New York Stock Exchange-listed TransUnion Co. forecasts that the average Canadian’s non-mortgage debt may increase by 1% to $31,531 by the end of 2020. Delinquency rates may fall to 5.41% this year from 5.54% at the end of September before increasing to 5.44% by the end of next year, the data showed.

TransUnion noted the “significant milestone” of outstanding credit card balances in Canada exceeding $100 billion in the third quarter for the first time.

Matt Fabian, Director of Financial Services Research and Consulting for TransUnion Canada, stated “While the Canadian economy has slowed, key measures such as inflation and unemployment remain healthy and continue to bolster the market. However, a potential slowdown in the Canadian economy, combined with soft wage growth, heightened global economic uncertainty, and potential further interest rate increases may cause some challenges.”

Credit card delinquencies may rise to 2.9% by the end of next year from 2.8% at the end of September, TransUnion said. The average credit card balance may increase to $4,465 by 2020 end from $4,240 at the end of September, it said.

Canada’s mortgage market is bouncing back from the B-20 mortgage stress test enacted in 2018 to tighten qualifications for home-buying, with new mortgages up 4.5% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, the agency reported.

As lenders have gotten acclimated to these new rules, other positive market factors, including lower long-term interest rates and positive housing sales and demand conditions, have contributed. TransUnion forecasts this growth to continue as demand increases and the market further acclimatizes to the new rules.